The Fatal Strain Page 42

  150 are concentrated around: Pierre Gerber et al., “Geographical Determinants and Environmental Implications of Livestock Production Intensification in Asia,” Bioresource Technology 96 (2005): 263-76; and Pierre Gerber et al., “Geographical Shifts of the Livestock Production: Land Use and Environmental Impact Implications,” paper presented at the conference “Structural Change in the Livestock Sector—Social, Health, and Environmental Implications for Policy Making,” Bangkok, Thailand, Jan. 27-29, 2004.

  150 “Agricultural practices have become”: Slingenbergh, “Ecological Sources of Zoonotic Diseases.” On the role of ecological factors in the evolution of zoonotic pathogens, see also Stephanie J. Schrag and Pamela Wiener, “Emerging Infectious Disease: What Are the Relative Roles of Ecology and Evolution?” Trends in Ecology and Evolution 10, no. 8 (Aug. 1995): 319-24.

  150 “virtual time bomb”: Les Sims and Claire Narrod, Understanding Avian Influenza (Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization, 2008), 2.

  151 showed no symptoms: D. J. Hulse-Post et al., “Role of Domestic Ducks in the Propogation and Biological Evolution of Highly Pathogenic H5N1 Influenza Viruses in Asia,” PNAS 102, no. 30 (July 26, 2005): 10682-87.

  151 tested flocks of free-range ducks: Thaweesak Songserm et al., “Domestic Ducks and H5N1 Influenza Epidemic, Thailand,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 12, no. 4 (Apr. 2006): 575-81.

  151 Mekong River delta: On the role of ducks in Vietnam’s outbreaks, see Dirk U. Pfeiffer et al., “An Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Occurrence in Vietnam Using National Surveillance Data,” Veterinary Journal 174, no. 2 (Sept. 2007): 302-9.

  151 outbreaks in the chicken population: Marius Gilbert et al., “Free-Grazing Ducks and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, Thailand,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 12, no. 2 (Feb. 2006): 227-34. Further research, broadened to include Vietnam, provided additional confirmation of the link between avian influenza outbreaks on one hand and ducks and intensive rice cultivation on the other. Rice paddies were identified as the best predictor of outbreak locations. See Marius Gilbert et al., “Mapping H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Risk in Southeast Asia,” PNAS 105, no. 12 (Mar. 25, 2008): 4769-74.

  154 Thai government would bar: Thanawat Tiensin et al., “Geographic and Temporal Distribution of Highly Pathogenic Influenza A Virus (H5N1) in Thailand, 2004-2005: An Overview,” Avian Diseases 51 (2007): 182-88.

  154 flu outbreaks unexpectedly erupted: See remarks by Dr. Hoang Van Nam, Department of Animal Health, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vietnam, at the Technical Meeting on Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and Human H5N1 Infection, June 27-29, 2007, Rome; and UN Food and Agriculture Organization, “Ducks May Be Behind Unexpected HPAI Outbreaks,” press release, Avian influenza newsroom, June 7, 2007.

  154 the fields of Kanchanaburi province: The episode is discussed in Thaweesak Songserm et al., “Domestic Ducks and H5N1 Influenza Epidemic, Thailand,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 12, no. 4 (Apr. 2006): 575-81.

  154 a peasant named Bang-on Benphat: Rungrawee C. Pinyorat, “Thailand Confirms 13th Human Death from Bird Flu,” Associated Press, Oct. 20, 2005; and WHO, Situation in Thailand—Update 35, Oct. 20, 2005.

  155 “Even insects can’t get in”: Even modern, all-enclosed poultry houses have been found to be vulnerable to disease. See, for example, J. Otte et al., “Industrial Livestock Production and Global Health Risks,” Pro-Poor Livestock Policy Initiative Research Report, UN Food and Agriculture Organization, Agriculture and Consumer Protection Department, Animal Production and Health Division, June 2007. All-enclosed houses are even vulnerable to insects that spread infection. See Kyoko Sawabe et al., “Detection and Isolation of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A Viruses from Blow Flies Collected in the Vicinity of an Infected Poultry Farm in Kyoto, Japan, 2004,” American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 75, no. 2 (2006): 327-32; and Birthe Hald et al., “Flies and Campylobacter Infection of Broiler Flocks,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 10, no. 8 (Aug. 2004): 1490-92. In some cases, the fans used for ventilating enclosed houses expel contaminated particles into the outside air, where they can infect other poultry houses and farms. See Christine Power, “The Source and Means of Spread of the Avian Influenza Virus in the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia During an Outbreak in the Winter of 2004: An Interim Report,” Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Animal Disease Surveillance Unit, Feb. 15, 2004; and T. A. Jones, C. A. Donnelly, and M. Stamp Dawkins, “Environmental and Management Factors Affecting the Welfare of Chickens on Commercial Farms in the United Kingdom and Demark Stocked at Five Densities,” Poultry Science 84 (2005): 1155-65.

  Chapter Six: From a Single Spark

  This chapter draws on interviews with public health officials and other disease specialists in Hong Kong and Guangdong.

  158 “strange contagious disease”: SARS: How a Global Epidemic Was Stopped (Manila: WHO Western Pacific Regional Office, 2006), 5.

  158 detected in a Hong Kong family: The case is described in J. S. Malik Peiris et al., “Re-emergence of Fatal Human Influenza A Subtype H5N1 Disease,” Lancet 363, no. 9409 (Feb. 21, 2004): 617-19; and Bernice Wuethrich, “An Avian Flu Jumps to People,” Science 299, no. 5612 (Mar. 7, 2003): 1504.

  161 a medical conference in Beijing: Ceci Connolly, “Four Months of Clues to Diagnosis,” Washington Post, June 23, 2003; and Donald J. McNeil Jr. with Lawrence K. Altman, “As SARS Outbreak Took Shape, Health Agency Took Fast Action,” New York Times, May 4, 2003.

  161 “He talked about deaths”: Disclosure, Canadian Broadcasting Corp., Nov. 18, 2003, cited in “Documentary Says WHO Missed Chances to Contain SARS in China,” Canadian Press, Nov. 18, 2003.

  161 “put two and two together”: Michael Specter, “Nature’s Bioterrorist: Is There Any Way to Prevent a Deadly Avian-Flu Pandemic?” New Yorker, Feb. 28, 2005.

  163 precisely what it was: For a description of the Guangdong outbreak and analysis of the samples collected in Guangdong, see N. S. Zhong et al., “Epidemiology and Cause of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Guangdong, People’s Republic of China, in February, 2003,” Lancet 362, no. 9393 (Oct. 25, 2003): 1353-58.

  163 With the vials stashed in his satchel: A riveting account of this episode can be found in Karl Taro Greenfeld, China Syndrome (New York: HarperCollins, 2006), ch. 20.

  165 “We tried to do our best”: Cheung Chi-fai, “Margaret Chan Breaks Down Twice at Hearing,” South China Morning Post, Jan. 14, 2004.

  165 “Usually, with other infectious diseases”: Mary Ann Benitez, “Health Chief Told Outbreak a State Secret,” South China Morning Post, Jan. 13, 2004.

  165 She was faulted: Report of the Select Committee to Inquire into the Handling of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Outbreak by the Government and the Hospital Authority, Hong Kong Legislative Council, July 2004, ch. 3, www.legco.gov.hk/yr03-04/english/sc/sc_sars/reports/sars_rpt.htm (accessed Feb. 16, 2009).

  165 a forty-four-year-old seafood seller: SARS: How a Global Epidemic Was Stopped (Manila: WHO Western Pacific Regional Office, 2006), ch. 13.

  166 ninth floor of the Metropole: For an excellent account of the Metropole episode, see Ellen Nakashima, “SARS Signals Missed in Hong Kong,” Washington Post, May 20, 2003. See also SARS: How a Global Epidemic Was Stopped, ch. 14.

  168 Air China flight 112: SARS: How a Global Epidemic Was Stopped, ch. 15; Brad Evenson, “‘Viral Bullets’: SARS ‘Super Spreader’ Seemed to Infect All Those Around Him on Air China Flight 112,” National Post, Mar. 29, 2003; Joseph Kahn with Elisabeth Rosenthal, “Even in Remote China, SARS Arrives in Force,” New York Times, Apr. 22, 2003; and Indira A. R. Lakshmanan, “Health Experts Express Alarm at Nature of SARS Spread on Air China Flight,” Boston Globe, May 18, 2003.

  168 more than 4,000: Ellen Nakashima, “SARS Signals Missed in Hong Kong,” Washington Post, May 20, 2003.

  169 islanders of the Pacific: Alfred W. Crosby, America’s Forgotten Pandemic: The Influenza of 1918, 2nd ed
. (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003), ch. 12.

  169 Eskimo villages of Alaska: John M. Barry, The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History (New York: Viking Penguin, 2004), ch. 30; Gina Kolata, Flu: The Story of the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 and the Search for the Virus That Caused It (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1999), ch. 4; and Crosby, America’s Forgotten Pandemic, ch. 12.

  170 threat of infectious disease: For a discussion of the positive and negative implications of globalization for infectious disease, see Karen J. Monaghan, “SARS: Down But Still a Threat,” National Intelligence Council, 2003, reprinted in Stacey Knobler et al., eds., Learning from SARS: Preparing for the Next Disease Outbreak—Workshop Summary (Washington: National Academies Press, 2004).

  170 speed of jet aircraft: John T. Bowen Jr. and Christian Laroe, “Airline Networks and the International Diffusion of Severe Acute Respiratory Disease, SARS,” Geographical Journal 172, no. 2 (June 2006): 130-44.

  170 “real potential for rapid dissemination”: Statement of Mark A. Gendreau before the Committee on House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Aviation, Apr. 6, 2005, Congressional Quarterly: Congressional Testimony, Apr. 6, 2005.

  170 “a wake-up call”: WHO news release, International Health Regulations Enter into Force, June 14, 2006.

  170 The Black Death: David Herlihy, The Black Death and the Transformation of the West (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1997).

  170 The last of three cholera epidemics: G. F. Pyle, “The Diffusion of Cholera in the United States in the Nineteenth Century,” Geographical Analysis 1 (1969): 59-75.

  170-71 Using data on the volume of travelers: Rebecca F. Grais, Hugh Ellis, and Gregory E. Glass, “Assessing the Impact of Airline Travel on the Geographic Spread of Pandemic Influenza,” European Journal of Epidemiology 18 (2003): 1065-72.

  171 a different statistical approach: Ben S. Cooper et al., “Delaying the International Spread of Pandemic Influenza,” PLoS Medicine 3, no. 6 (June 2006): e212.

  171 isolated a pathogen: J. S. Malik Peiris et al., “Coronavirus as a Possible Cause of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome,” Lancet 361, no. 9366 (Apr. 19, 2003): 1319-25.

  172 an unprecedented coup: For a fuller discussion of WHO’s success, see J. S. Mackenzie et al., “The WHO Response to SARS and Preparations for the Future,” in Stacey Knobler et al., eds., Learning from SARS: Preparing for the Next Disease Outbreak—Workshop Summary (Washington: National Academies Press, 2004); David L. Heymann and Guenael Rodier, “SARS: Lessons from a New Disease,” in Knobler, Learning from SARS; and SARS: How a Global Epidemic Was Stopped (Manila: WHO Western Pacific Regional Office, 2006), ch. 2.

  172 “The quality, speed and effectiveness”: Knobler, Learning from SARS, 2.

  174 approached the traders: For a dramatic account, see Karl Taro Greenfeld, China Syndrome (New York: HarperCollins, 2006), ch. 69.

  175 found the evidence: Yi Guan et al., “Isolation and Characterization of Viruses Related to the SARS Coronavirus from Animals in Southern China,” Science 302, no. 5643 (Oct. 10, 2003): 276-78. For a discussion of Guan’s investigation, see Dennis Normile and Martin Enserink, “Tracking the Roots of a Killer,” Science 301, no. 5631 (July 18, 2003): 297-99.

  176 “first emerging disease”: SARS: How a Global Epidemic Was Stopped, overview.

  177 its reproductive number was lower: Marc Lipsitch et al., “Transmission Dynamics and Control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome,” Science 300, no. 5627 (June 20, 2003): 1966-70.

  177 three times greater or more: Christophe Fraser et al., “Factors That Make an Infectious Disease Outbreak Controllable,” PNAS 101, no. 16 (Apr. 20, 2004): 6146-51.

  177 virus in their nose and throat: J. S. Malik Peiris et al., “Clinical Progression and Viral Load in a Community Outbreak of Coronavirus-Associated SARS Pneumonia: A Progressive Study,” Lancet 361, no. 9371 (May 24, 2003): 1767-72.

  177 rarely contagious in the first few days: Roy M. Anderson et al., “Epidemiology, Transmission Dynamics and Control of SARS: The 2002-2003 Epidemic,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences 359 (2004): 1091-1105; and Lipsitch, “Transmission Dynamics.”

  177 “very lucky this time”: Anderson, “Epidemiology, Transmission Dynamics and Control of SARS.”

  177 between 30 and 50 percent: Fraser, “Factors That Make an Infectious Disease Outbreak Controllable.”

  177 “Once adapted to human-to-human transmission”: J. S. Malik Peiris and Yi Guan, “Confronting SARS: A View from Hong Kong,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences 359 (2004): 1075-79.

  Chapter Seven: Cockfighting and Karma

  188 about 7,500 years: Barbara West and Ben-Xiong Zhou, “Did Chickens Go North? New Evidence for Domestication,” Journal of Archaeological Science 15 (1988): 515-33.

  188 most likely in Thailand itself: Akishinonomiya Fumihito et al., “One Subspecies of the Red Junglefowl (Gallus gallus gallus) Suffices as the Matriarchic Ancestor of All Domestic Breeds,” PNAS 91 (Dec. 1994), 12505-9.

  188 red jungle fowl: Ibid.

  189 “fight for kingdoms”: “Commemoration of King Naresuan: The Nation’s Great King 400 Years Ago,” Welcome to Chiangmai and Chiangrai, n.d., www.chiangmai-chiangrai.com/king_n.html (accessed Feb. 16, 2009).

  190 Yuenyong included the song: Charles Piller, “Squawking at Bird Flu Warning,” Los Angeles Times, Sept. 1, 2005.

  196 clear their throats: For the various details of this case, see Vijay Joshi, “Thai Man Dies of Bird Flu, Asian Toll Rises to 28,” Associated Press, Sept. 9, 2004; “Bird Flu Kills 18-Year-Old Man in Thailand,” Kyodo News Service, Sept. 9, 2004; and “Thai Man Dies of Bird Flu: Health Ministry,” Agence France Presse, Sept. 9, 2004.

  197 had died in previous weeks: “Breeder Dies from Bird Flu,” Nation (Thailand), Sept. 10, 2004.

  197 “The victim failed to report”: Anusak Konglang, “Thailand Reports First Bird Flu Death in Over Seven Months,” Agence France Presse, July 26, 2006.

  197 villagers had declined to notify officials: “Thailand Tries to Improve Bird Flu Monitoring,” Reuters, June 27, 2006.

  198 The state’s chief minister: “Repent, Nik Aziz Tells Cockfighting Buffs,” Bernama, Sept. 23, 2004.

  198 Thailand shipped nearly six thousand: Kasikorn Research Center, Feb. 10, 2004, cited in “Raising Domestic Chicken Breeds: Interesting,” Thai Press Reports, Feb. 11, 2004.

  198 illegal cockfighting tours: “Cock-fighting Birds Likely Culprit in Mukdahan H5N1 Outbreak,” Nation (Thailand), Mar. 21, 2007.

  200 30 million households: “Govt Defends Its Bird Flu Measures,” Jakarta Post, Aug. 10, 2006.

  200 “greatest single challenge”: Comments from the U.S. Agency for International Development in appendix 2 of Influenza Pandemic: Efforts to Forestall Onset Are Underway; Identifying Countries at Greatest Risk Entails Challenges, Government Accountability Office, June 2007, GAO-07-604.

  201 force poultry farming underground: Juan Lubroth at an FAO press conference in Bangkok, quoted in FAO news release, “New Bird Flu Outbreaks Require Strong Vigilance,” Jan. 23, 2007.

  202 continue to take risks: Sowath Ly et al., “Interaction Between Humans and Poultry, Rural Cambodia,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 13, no. 1 (Jan. 2007): 130-32; and H. M. Barennes et al., “Avian Influenza Risk Perceptions, Laos,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 13, no. 7 (July 2007): 1126-28.

  203 thirteen thousand live poultry markets: Joseph Domenech et al., “Trends and Dynamics of HPAI—Epidemiological and Animal Health Risks,” Background Paper at the Technical Meeting on Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and Human H5N1 Infection, Rome, June 27-29, 2007.

  203 a perilous nexus: Robert G. Webster, “Wet Markets—a Continuing Source of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Influenza?” Lancet 363, no. 9404 (Jan. 17, 2004): 234-36. See also Writing Committee of the Second World Health Organization Consultation on Clinical Aspects of Huma
n Infection with Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Virus, “Update on Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Virus Infection in Humans,” NEJM 358, no. 3 (Jan. 17, 2008): 261-73; and L. D. Sims, “Lessons Learned from Asian H5N1 Outbreak Control,” Avian Diseases 51 (2007): 182-88 (2007).

  203 “missing link”: D. A. Senne, J. E. Pearson, and B. Panigrahy, “Live Poultry Markets: A Missing Link in the Epidemiology of Avian Influenza,” in B. C. East erday, ed., Proceedings of the Third Annual Symposium on Avian Influenza, Madison, Wisconsin (Richmond, VA: U.S. Animal Health Association, 1992).

  203 1997 human outbreak in Hong Kong: J. C. de Jong et al., “A Pandemic Warning?” Nature 389, no. 6651 (Oct. 9, 1997): 554; Eric C. J. Claas et al., “Human Influenza A H5N1 Virus Related to a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus,” Lancet 351, no. 9101 (Feb. 14, 1998): 472-77; and Anthony W. Mounts et al., “Case-Control Study of Risk Factors for Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Disease, Hong Kong, 1997,” Journal of Infectious Diseases 180 (1999): 505-8.

  203 returned to Hong Kong’s markets: L. D. Sims et al., “Avian Influenza in Hong Kong 1997-2002,” Avian Diseases 47 (2003), no. s3: 832-38.

  203 On the mainland: Ming Liu et al., “The Influenza Virus Gene Pool in a Poultry Market in South Central China,” Virology 305, no. 2 (Jan. 20, 2003): 267-75.

  203 six city dwellers: Hongjie Yu et al., “Human Influenza A (H5N1) Cases, Urban Areas of the People’s Republic of China, 2005-2006,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 13, no. 7 (July 2007): 1061-64.

  207 a rapid-response unit: Interview with Nick Marx, WildAid.

  207 imported by the tens of thousands: Hong Kong government press release, Jan. 6, 2007.

  207 principal threat of reinfection: Mary Ann Benitez, “Ban Wild Bird Imports, Experts Say,” South China Morning Post, Jan. 20, 2007.